Climate change and future glacial resources

Glaciated regions present a wide range of glacial resources, from drinking water to tourism and from hydroelectric power to mining. However, as the climate warms and glacial regions change, these resources are under threat, and communities will need to start adapting in order to maintain livelihoods and economic development.

Glacial water resources

The first of the key glacial resources under threat is water supply. Changing weather patterns will undoubtedly alter the frequency and duration of monsoonal rainfall and increase the number of dry days across the Hindu-Kush-Karakoram ¹. Therefore, communities living downstream will rely more heavily on glacial meltwater.

However, glacial melt is projected to decline as soon as 2050 ^2,3 and in some cases even sooner. Water for drinking, agriculture, washing, cooking, hydroelectric power will all be affected.

Below are some examples of water resource pressures due to deglaciation.

USA	The Andes	Himalaya
In Wyoming, crop production to support the United States $800 million cattle industry is dependent on glacial meltwater to supply a stable source of water during the growing season. However, from 1985 to 2005, glacial meltwater contributions reduced by 10% ⁴.	In the Andes, 27% of the city of La Paz’s water consumption during the dry season is glacial meltwater from the Cordillera Real, which is projected to decrease annually by 12% ⁴.	Glacial meltwater contributions in the Shule river basin, north-western China will reduce from 23% to 15% by 2030 ⁵.

Glacial-fed hydroelectric power

Generally, glacial melt during the dry seasons contributes between 15% and 40% to annual hydrogeneration across the Himalayas, with this figure expected to increase as glaciers retreat before declining rapidly. As a result, countries heavily reliant on hydropower, such as Bhutan and China, are likely to suffer economically in the future ⁶.

Further, increased sediment in glacial meltwaters will reduce dam capacities through sedimentation, whilst also causing erosional damage to the systems ².

In addition, potential increase in cascade hazards as the frequency and magnitude of mass movements and outburst floods increases could result in substantial structural damage to the dams themselves leading to widespread economic implications and energy security issues.

FUN FACT: A 2016 paper ⁷ found that around 66% of hydropower plants in Himalaya fell in GLOF tracks.

There are numerous documented events of outbursts causing damage to hydroelectric dams; in 1985 a GLOF from Langmoche Lake in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal, destroyed an almost completed hydro dam ⁸, whilst an outburst from Chorabari Lake, Uttarakhand, India, in June 2013 severely damaged at least two sites ⁹.

HEP dams as glacial resources — *Figure 1: Aerial image showing flood damage in Rudraprayag, Uttarakhand, following the 2013 outburst that damage two HEP sites. Credit: Ministry of Defence India, via Wikimedia Commons.*

Glacial resources and political tensions

Alpine glaciers worldwide are projected to lose most of their volume by the end of the 21st century, and the new landscapes that emerge in place of these retreating glaciers will provide a host of challenges for ecological and human adaptation.

Natural hazards will interplay with glacial resources, including local agriculture, hydroelectric production, mining activities, tourism and more. Thus where these activities cross national borders there is potential for transnational implications and tensions to arise, especially where resources are in decline.

Most waters from glaciers originate within boundaries of one country but flow into and across one or more others. As water supplies deplete, water use, storage, and control upstream will undoubtedly impact downstream, with the potential to cause issues between nations.

In the Hindu-Kush-Karakoram, India blames China for water stresses related to water infrastructure projects (dams, HEP, reservoirs, water diversion projects) while Bangladesh and Pakistan blame India for similar projects.

Glacial tourism

Tourism as a glacial resource — *Figure 2: Supraglacial lakes on Khumbu glacier on the Kongma La Pass trail 2023. The trail between the lakes is at risk of needing complete rerouting. Credit: Rajeshtg, via Wikimedia Commons.*

Glacial mass loss across high mountain regions will undoubtedly see changes to the tourist sector.

Already across the Himalayas access for trekking and mountaineering – which now supports entire communities – is under threat.

For example, glacial thinning and supraglacial pond formation on the Khumbu glacier, Nepal, has forced the rerouting of the Kongma La Pass trail (the main trail on the accent to Everest Base Camp) ¹⁰ on several occasions, with options reducing each season.

The trail will likely become impassable in the coming years.

Last chance tourism?

Elsewhere, communities have had to adapt to account for complete loss of glacial environments; once advertised as the worlds’ highest ski resort, the Chacaltaya Glacier in the Andes completely disappeared in 2009, bringing an end to ski tourism. However, the region is still a popular spot for tourists wanting 360 degree panoramic views of the mountain landscapes, plus is now a popular spot for high altitude climbing ¹¹.

*Figure 3: The Chacaltaya ski resort in 1984 (left) and 2007 (right), Credits: Bernard Gagnon, via Wikimedia Commons (left) and Ville Miettinen from Helsinki, Finland, via Wikimedia Commons (right).*

Elsewhere the increased frequency of rockfalls will likely force a change to established climbing routes; the window of opportunity for mountaineering accents will likely be shortened as monsoon-driven snowfall changes; trekking routes will likely be diverted as existing routes become more dangerous. Tourism in its current form will need to adapt to the changing environment if it is to survive.

Summary

In summary, glacial resources are changing. As glaciers and glaciated mass declines how we use these environments will need to change too. our collective ability to adapt in the face of a warming world will decide the future sustainability of mountain regions.

References

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