Antarctic Peninsula glacier change

Antarctic Peninsula environmental change | Antarctic Peninsula glacier change | References | Comments |

This page is largely from Davies et al. 2012 (open access) and Glasser et al. 2011. Download the PDF for Davies et al. 2012.

Antarctic Peninsula environmental change

Antarctic temperature trends, 1981-2007. By Robert Simmon, NASA [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Numerous recent papers have documented increasing atmospheric[1-3] and oceanic temperatures[4, 5] across the Antarctic Peninsula and Southern Ocean. Atmospheric air temperatures rose by 2.5°C in the northern Antarctic Peninsula from 1950 to 2000[1]. This is far greater than the global average of 0.6°C per century. This warming may have been ongoing since the 1930s[6]. This environmental change has been linked to an intensification of circumpolar westerlies[7] and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current[8, 9]. A strengthening of the circumpolar vortex results in asynchronous change, with cooling over East Antarctica and warming over West Antarctica[10]. Decreased sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea enhances warming over the western Peninsula and Weddell Sea. At the same time, there has been less snow falling over the south-western Antarctic Peninsula[10, 11].

Antarctic Peninsula glacier change

This climate change has led to a rapid glaciological response, with 87% of glaciers around the Antarctic Peninsula now receding[12], and many glaciers thinning and accelerating[13]. The most dramatic response has been the collapse of several ice shelves, with 28,000 km2 being lost since 1960[14]. This has resulted in glacier acceleration, thinning and recession[15, 16]. This is covered in more detail under Ice Shelves. Larsen-A and the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf on northern Trinity Peninsula were the first ice shelves to collapse in 1995[17], with a combined area of 2030 km2[18].

James Ross Island

Glaciers and the extent of the former Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, showing glacier extent in 2001 and 2009. From: Davies et al., 2011 (The Cryosphere).

New mapping of the glaciers of James Ross Island and Trinity Peninsula between 1988 and 2009 has shown a complex glacier response to environmental change. In 2009, this area had 194 glaciers covering 8140 km2. Trinity Peninsula was drained by outlet and valley glaciers[19].

The collapse of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf had a significant impact on its tributary glaciers. Following collapse, tributary glaciers thinned, accelerated and receded. Between 2001 and 2009, Röhss Glacier, a tributary from James Ross Island, thinned and centre flow line speeds increased (from 0.1 m per day in 2005-2006 to 0.9 m per day 2008-2009)[18].

The role of glacial structures

Glaciological structures may be an important control in ice-shelf collapse. The structural discontinuities indicate that Prince Gustav Ice Shelf was not a cohesive structure, with weaknesses in the suture zones. Structural discontinuities and rift zones visible in a 1998 Landsat image suggest that disintegration began at least 7 years prior to collapse[18]. During this period, rates of sediment accumulation on the sea floor beneath the ice shelf increased between 1985 and 1993, as a result of debris release following pond and lake drainage[20].

Trinity Peninsula

Landsat 4 TM image from 1988 showing Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. Ice shelf glaciological structures have been mapped onto the image.

Across the wider region, glacier response to climate change and ice-shelf collapse was varied[19]. Across Trinity Peninsula, on the eastern coast, glaciers shrank at -0.35% per annum from 1988-2001. West-coast glaciers shrank at -0.2% per annum. Ice-shelf tributary glaciers shrank at -2.69% per annum. From 2001-2009, east-coast tidewater glaciers shrank at -0.21% per annum, west-coast glaciers at -0.03% per annum, and former ice-shelf tributary glaciers at -0.96% per annum[19]. From 1988-2001, 90% of the glaciers in the region shrank, and 79% shrank from 2001-2009, although rates of recession varied strongly spatially[19].

Research findings

This research shows that ice-shelf tributary glaciers shrank fastest overall, and particularly rapidly from 1988-2001. However, among the remaining tidewater glaciers, rates of shrinkage are highly variable. Variable rates of shrinkage are probably controlled by calving processes and non-linear responses to climate change[19]. However, the large differences between the east and west Trinity Peninsula are likely to be a result of strong atmospheric temperature and precipitation gradients; the more stable western Trinity Peninsula is warmer, but receives far more snow[3, 11, 21].

Annual rates of shrinkage for different time periods. Glaciers in red shrank fastest. Glaciers in purple advanced. Note slow rates of shrinkage on the western Peninsula. In Figure D, glaciers in yellow shrank fastest between 1988-2001, and glaciers in red shrank fastest after 2001. From: Davies et al., 2011 (The Cryosphere).

For glaciers feeding the former ice shelf, rates of shrinkage were highest immediately following ice-shelf collapse[19]. This is because ice-shelf removal destabilises tributary glaciers, because ice shelves reduce longitudinal stress and limit glacier motion upstream of the ice shelf[13, 22]. By 2001, these glaciers had begun to stabilise and find a new dynamic equilibrium, and rates of recession began to reduce once they were within their narrow fjords. Fjord geometry is a major control on tidewater glacier dynamics[23], with shrinkage slowing as a result of enhanced backstress  and pinning against fjord sides[19].

Conclusions

Glacier recession around the northern Antarctic Peninsula therefore had three distinct phases: 1988-1995: stable ice-shelf period[19] (possibly with thinning and some early ice-shelf melting[18]); 1995-2001: the period of ice-shelf disintegration and rapid readjustment of ice-shelf tributary glaciers to new boundary conditions; and 2001-2009: shrinkage of all glaciers in response to increased atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.

Further reading

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Citation

Please see the original papers and cite as:

Davies, B.J., Carrivick, J.L., Glasser, N.F., Hambrey, M.J. and Smellie, J.L., 2012. Variable glacier response to atmospheric warming, northern Antarctic Peninsula, 1988–2009. The Cryosphere, 6: 1031-1048. (download PDF)

Glasser, N.F., Scambos, T.A., Bohlander, J.A., Truffer, M., Pettit, E.C. and Davies, B.J., 2011. From ice-shelf tributary to tidewater glacier: continued rapid glacier recession, acceleration and thinning of Röhss Glacier following the 1995 collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Glaciology, 57(203): 397-406.

References


1.            Turner, J., S.R. Colwell, G.J. Marshall, T.A. Lachlan-Cope, A.M. Carelton, P.D. Jones, V. Lagun, P.A. Reid, and S. Iagovkina, 2005. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology, 25: 279-294.

2.            Vaughan, D.G., G.J. Marshall, W.M. Connelly, J.C. King, and R. Mulvaney, 2001. Devil in the detail. Science, 293(5536): 1777-1779.

3.            Vaughan, D.G., G.J. Marshall, W.M. Connelly, C. Parkinson, R. Mulvaney, D.A. Hodgson, J.C. King, C.J. Pudsey, and J. Turner, 2003. Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Climatic Change, 60: 243-274.

4.            Gille, S.T., 2008. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean. Journal of Climatology, 21: 4749-4765.

5.            Meredith, M.P. and J.C. King, 2005. Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 32: L19604.

6.            Davies, B.J., M.J. Hambrey, J.L. Smellie, J.L. Carrivick, and N.F. Glasser, 2012. Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet evolution during the Cenozoic Era. Quaternary Science Reviews, 31(0): 30-66.

7.            Mayewski, P.A., M.P. Meredith, C.P. Summerhayes, J. Turner, A. Worby, P.J. Barrett, G. Casassa, N.A.N. Bertler, T. Bracegirdle, A.C. Naveira Garabato, D. Bromwich, H. Campell, G.S. Hamilton, W.B. Lyons, K.A. Maasch, S. Aoki, C. Xiao, and T. van Ommen, 2009. State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system. Reviews of Geophysics, 47(RG1003): 1-38.

8.            Lubin, D., R.A. Wittenmyer, D. Bromwich, and G.J. Marshall, 2008. Antarctic Peninsula mesoscale cyclone variability and climatic impacts influenced by the SAM. Geophysical Research Letters, 35: 1-4.

9.            Gille, S.T., 2002. Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science, 295: 1275-1277.

10.          van den Broeke, M.R. and N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2004. Changes in Antarctic temperature, wind and precipitation in response to the Antarctic Oscillation. Annals of Glaciology, 39: 119-126.

11.          van Lipzig, N.P.M., J.C. King, T.A. Lachlan-Cope, and M.R. van den Broeke, 2004. Precipitation, sublimation and snow drift in the Antarctic Peninsula region from a regional atmospheric model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109: D24106.

12.          Cook, A.J., A.J. Fox, D.G. Vaughan, and J.G. Ferrigno, 2005. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science, 308(5721): 541-544.

13.          Pritchard, H.D. and D.G. Vaughan, 2007. Widespread acceleration of tidewater glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 112(F3): F03S29, 1-10.

14.          Cook, A.J. and D.G. Vaughan, 2010. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. The Cryosphere, 4(1): 77-98.

15.          Scambos, T.A., J.A. Bohlander, C.A. Shuman, and P. Skvarca, 2004. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 31: L18402.

16.          De Angelis, H. and P. Skvarca, 2003. Glacier surge after ice shelf collapse. Science, 299: 1560-1562.

17.          Cooper, A.P.R., 1997. Historical observations of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. Polar Record, 33(187): 285-294.

18.          Glasser, N.F., T.A. Scambos, J.A. Bohlander, M. Truffer, E.C. Pettit, and B.J. Davies, 2011. From ice-shelf tributary to tidewater glacier: continued rapid glacier recession, acceleration and thinning of Röhss Glacier following the 1995 collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Glaciology, 57(203): 397-406.

19.          Davies, B.J., J.L. Carrivick, N.F. Glasser, M.J. Hambrey, and J.L. Smellie, 2012. Variable glacier response to atmospheric warming, northern Antarctic Peninsula, 1988–2009. The Cryosphere, 6: 1031-1048.

20.          Gilbert, R. and E.W. Domack, 2003. Sedimentary record of disintegrating ice shelves in a warming climate, Antarctic Peninsula. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, 4.

21.          Aristarain, A.J., 1987. Accumulation and temperature measurements on the James Ross Island ice cap, Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctica. Journal of Glaciology, 33(115): 357-362.

22.          Hulbe, C.L., T.A. Scambos, T. Youngberg, and A.K. Lamb, 2008. Patterns of glacier response to disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. Global and Planetary Change, 63(1): 1-8.

23.          Meier, M.F. and A.S. Post, 1987. Fast tidewater glaciers. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92: 9051-9058.

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Ice shelf collapse

What is an ice shelf? | Ice shelf collapse | Mechanisms of ice shelf collapse | Ice shelf buttressing | References | Comments

What is an ice shelf?

Larsen Ice Shelf in 2004

Ice shelves are floating tongues of ice that extend from grounded glaciers on land. Snow falls on glaciers, which flow downstream under gravity. Ice shelves are common around Antarctica, and the largest ones are the Ronne-Filchner, Ross and McMurdo Ice Shelves.

Ice shelves surround 75% of Antarctica’s coastline, and cover an area of over 1.561 million square kilometres (a similar size to the Greenland Ice Sheet). Ice shelves gain mass from ice flowing into them from glaciers onland, from snow accumulation, and from the freezing of marine ice (sea water) to their undersides[1]. They lose mass by calving icebergs, and basal melting towards their outer margins, along with sublimation and wind drift on their surfaces. Ice shelves are important, because they play a role in the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the ice sheet’s mass balance, and are important for ocean stratification and bottom water formation; this helps drive the world’s thermohaline circulation. Melting from beneath ice shelves is one of the key ways in which the Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass[1].

In the satellite image of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf below, you can see that the ice shelves have a very flat appearance. In fact, you can normally tell where the ice starts to float by a sharp break in slope at the grounding line. Ice shelves are therefore composed of ice derived from snowfall on land, but they also accrete marine ice from below[2]. Ice shelves are therefore distinct from sea ice, which form solely from freezing marine water. You can see an example from northern Antarctic Peninsula below. Prince Gustav Ice Shelf was situated between Trinity Peninsula and James Ross Island. It collapsed in 1995. You can see glaciological structures on the ice shelf, indicating that it flows out from its tributary glaciers. You can also see abundant melt ponds on the ice shelf.

Ice shelves around Antarctica are up to 50,000 km2 in size, and can be up to 2000 m thick. Their front terminus is often up to 100 m high. Ice shelves intermittently calve large icebergs, which is a normal part of their ablation. Around Antarctica, ice shelves form where mean annual temperatures are less than -9°C, with sequential break up of ice shelves as temperatures increase[3-5]. The geometry of the coastline is often important for determining where ice shelves will develop. The Larsen Ice Shelf, for example, is formed in an embayment.

Ice shelf collapse

Several of the ice shelves around Antarctica have recently collapsed dramatically, rather than retreating in a slow and steady manner.  Larsen A collapsed in 1995[6], and Larsen B Ice Shelf famously collapsed in 2002. It has shrunk from 12,000 km2 in 1963 to 2400 km2 in 2010[4]. During February 2002, 3250 km2 were lost through iceberg calving and fragmentation. In the figure below, you can see the blue, mottled appearance of the ice shelf in the 2002 image, caused by the exposure of deeper blue glacier ice.

Landsat images showing the collapse of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Note the blue mottled appearance in 2002, resulting from the exposure of deep blue ice.

Several ice shelves have now collapsed around the Antarctic Peninsula (Table 1). Their collapse has made it possible to core the sub-shelf sediments to investigate whether these collapses are part of normal ice-shelf behaviour. It appears that the more northerly ice shelves, such as Prince Gustav Ice Shelf, have indeed previously collapsed, resulting in open-marine organisms living in Prince Gustav Channel for a short period 5000 years ago[7]. However, the more southerly Larsen B Ice Shelf appears to have remained a fixture throughout the Holocene[8]. This suggests that certain thresholds have been passed, with environmental changes throughout the Antarctic Peninsula now surpassing any that have occurred before.

 

 

In the video below, you can see an animation of the Larsen Ice Shelf collapse from Modis imagery:

Table 1. Dates of ice shelf collapse

Ice shelf Largest area (km2) Previous behaviour Recent behaviour
Wordie 2000 ??? 1989 collapse
Larsen Inlet 400 Frequent removal throughout Holocene 1989 collapse
Prince Gustav 2100 Removal 5000 BP 1995 collapse
Larsen A 2500 Frequent removal throughout Holocene 1995 collapse
Larsen B 11,500 Stable throughout Holocene 2002 collapse
Jones 25 ??? 2003 collapse
Wilkins 16,577 Numerous large calving events 2008 collapse
Larsen C 60,000 Stable throughout Holocene Thinning & retreating
Müller 50 Advance during the Little Ice Age Gradual  recession (50 % left)
George VI 26,000 Brief absence (9000 BP) Still present & thinning. Confined, which may increase stability.

Mechanisms of ice shelf collapse

There are several reasons why ice shelves disintegrate rapidly rather than slowly and steadily shrinking. Ice shelves collapse in response to long term environmental changes, which cause on-going thinning and shrinking. When certain thresholds are passed, catastrophic ice shelf disintegration through iceberg calving is initiated. Before collapse, ice shelves first undergo a period of long-term thinning and basal melting, which makes them vulnerable. Meltwater ponding on the surface and tidal flexure and plate bending then all contribute to rapid calving events and ice shelf disintegration.

1. Long term thinning and basal melting

Antarctic ice shelf thickness changes. Note the rapid thinning of Pine Island Glacier ice shelf in West Antarctica. From Pritchard et al., 2012, Nature. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature (Pritchard et al. 2012), copyright (2012).

Antarctic ice shelf thickness changes. Note the rapid thinning of Pine Island Glacier ice shelf in West Antarctica. From Pritchard et al., 2012, Nature. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature
(Pritchard et al. 2012), copyright (2012).

Long-term thinning from surface and basal melting preconditions the ice shelf to collapse. Negative mass balances on tributary glaciers can lead to thinning of the glaciers and ice shelves. The highest rates of thinning are where relatively warm ocean currents can access the base of ice shelves through deep troughs[9,10]. Ice-shelf structure seems to be important, with sutures between tributary glaciers resulting in weaker areas of thinner ice, which are susceptible to rifting[11].

A recent analysis of ice shelves across Antarctica has shown that basal melt rates are around 1325 ± 235 gigatonnes per year, with an additional calving flux of 1089 ± 139 gigatonnes per year. Ice shelf melting is therefore one of the largest ablation processes in Antarctica[1]. However, this massive basal melting does not occur evenly distributed across all ice shelves; the massive Ronne, Filchner and Ross ice shelves cover two thirds of the total ice shelf area but account for only 15% of net melting. Instead, the highest melt rates occur around the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, from the northern end of George VI Ice Shelf to the western end of Getz Ice Shelf[1]. These ice shelves are also rapidly thinning rapidly[9]. On slow moving ice shelves (e.g., George VI, Abbot, Wilkins), almost all of the original land ice has melted away within a few kilometres of the grounding line. So, half of the meltwater produced comes from just ten small, warm-cavity ice shelves around the SE Pacific rim of Antarctica, and these ten ice shelves occupy just 8% of total ice shelf area. All this cold water being released into the ocean has a significant impact on the formation of sea ice, resulting in higher rates of sea ice concentration around Antarctica.

Melting of ice shelves around Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is concerning, because the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below sea level. A collapse of this ice shelf could lead to marine ice sheet instabilty and rapid global sea level rise.

Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA) showing location of key ice shelves.

Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA) showing location of key ice shelves.

2. Surface melting and ponding

Increased atmospheric temperatures lead to surface melting and ponding on the ice surface. Catastrophic ice-shelf collapsed tend to occur after a relatively warm summer season, with increased surface melting[12]. Based on the seasonality of ice shelf break up, and the geographic distribution of ice shelf collapse near the southerly-progressing -9°C isotherm, it appears that surface ponding is necessary for ice-shelf collapse[12]. This meltwater melts downwards into the ice shelf, causing fractures and leading to rapid ice-berg calving[5, 12]. Increased surface meltwater also leads to snow saturation, filling crevasses with water and increasing hydrostatic pressures. Brine infiltration can also cause crack over deepening.

3. Plate bending and tidal flexure

However, meltwater ponding alone does not explain rapid ice-shelf fragmentation. We need to invole a third process. Bending at the frontal margin of the ice shelf as a result of tidal flexure may cause small cracks to form parallel to the ice front. When subject to the above conditions (thinning with abundant surface water), a threshold may be passed, causing rapid ice shelf disintegration[12].

When icebergs are formed through the above mechanisms, long, thin icebergs are formed at the ice front. These icebergs will capsize as they are thinner than they are deep. Iceberg capsize releases gravitational potential energy and increases tensile stress on the ice shelf. This may lead to a cascade of fragmentation, capsize, and iceberg break up[13].

Ice shelf buttressing

Glacier-ice shelf interactions: In a stable glacier-ice shelf system, the glacier’s downhill movement is offset by the buoyant force of the water on the front of the shelf. Warmer temperatures destabilize this system by lubricating the glacier’s base and creating melt ponds that eventually carve through the shelf. Once the ice shelf retreats to the grounding line, the buoyant force that used to offset glacier flow becomes negligible, and the glacier picks up speed on its way to the sea. Original Image by Ted Scambos and Michon Scott, National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Collapsing ice shelves do not directly contribute to global sea level rise. This is because they are floating, and so their melting does not result in sea level rise. To check this, put a few ice cubes in a glass and check the water level. Does the water rise when the “icebergs” melt?

However, ice shelves play a very important role in “buttressing” their tributary glaciers. Glaciers that feed into ice shelves are held back by the ice shelf in front of them[14, 15]. Even small ice shelves play an important role in regulating flow from ice streams that feed into them[14]. This has been observed in several cases, most notably following the Larsen Ice Shelf [16-19] and Prince Gustav Ice Shelf collapses[20, 21]. In the Landsat image of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf above, you can see the rapid glacier recession from 1988 to 2009.

With glaciers thinning, accelerating and receding in response to ice shelf collapse[20, 21], more ice is directly transported into the oceans, making a direct contribution to sea level rise. Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution[22]. See Marine Ice Sheet Instability for more information.

Further reading

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References


1.            Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B. (2013). Ice Shelf Melting Around Antarctica. Science.

2.            Holland, P.R., Corr, H.F.J., Vaughan, D.G., Jenkins, A., and Skvarca, P., 2009. Marine ice in Larsen Ice Shelf. Geophysical Research Letters, 2009. 36: p. L11604.

3.            Morris, E.M. and Vaughan, A.P.M., 2003. Spatial and temporal variation of surface temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula and the limit of viability of ice shelves, in Antarctic Peninsula climate variability: historical and palaeoenvironmental perspectives, E.W. Domack, et al., Editors. American Geophysical Union, Antarctic Research Series, Volume 79: Washington, D.C. p. 61-68.

4.            Cook, A.J. and Vaughan, D.G., 2010. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. The Cryosphere, 2010. 4(1): p. 77-98.

5.            Scambos, T., Hulbe, C., and Fahnestock, M., 2003. Climate-induced ice shelf disintegration in the Antarctic Peninsula, in Antarctic Peninsula climate variability: historical and palaeoenvironmental perspectives, E.W. Domack, et al., Editors. American Geophysical Union, Antarctic Research Series, Volume 79: Washington, D.C. p. 79-92.

6.            Rott, H., Skvarca, P., and Nagler, T., 1996. Rapid collapse of northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Science, 1996. 271(5250): p. 788-792.

7.            Pudsey, C.J. and Evans, J., 2001. First survey of Antarctic sub-ice shelf sediments reveals Mid-Holocene ice shelf retreat. Geology, 2001. 29: p. 787-790.

8.            Domack, E., Duran, D., Leventer, A., Ishman, S., Doane, S., McCallum, S., Amblas, D., Ring, J., Gilbert, R., and Prentice, M., 2005. Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch. Nature, 2005. 436(4): p. 681-685.

9.            Pritchard, H.D., Ligtenberg, S.R.M., Fricker, H.A., Vaughan, D.G., van den Broeke, M.R., and Padman, L., 2012. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves. Nature, 2012. 484(7395): p. 502-505.

10.            Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., and Rignot, E., 2004. Warm ocean is eroding West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geophysical Research Letters, 2004. 31(23): p. L23402.

11.          Glasser, N.F. and Scambos, T.A., 2008. A structural glaciological analysis of the 2002 Larsen B ice shelf collapse. Journal of Glaciology, 2008. 54(184): p. 3-16.

12.          Scambos, T., Fricker, H.A., Liu, C.-C., Bohlander, J., Fastook, J., Sargent, A., Massom, R., and Wu, A.-M., 2009. Ice shelf disintegration by plate bending and hydro-fracture: Satellite observations and model results of the 2008 Wilkins ice shelf break-ups. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2009. 280(1–4): p. 51-60.

13.          MacAyeal, D.R., Scambos, T.A., Hulbe, C.L., and Fahnestock, M.A., 2003. Catastrophic ice-shelf break-up by an ice-shelf-fragment-capsize mechanism. Journal of Glaciology, 2003. 49(164): p. 22-36.

14.          Dupont, T.K. and Alley, R.B., 2006. Role of small ice shelves in sea-level rise. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2006. 33(9): p. L09503.

15.          Dupont, T.K. and Alley, R.B., 2005. Assessment of the importance of ice-shelf buttressing to ice-sheet flow. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005. 32(4): p. L04503.

16.          Scambos, T.A., Bohlander, J.A., Shuman, C.A., and Skvarca, P., 2004. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 2004. 31: p. L18402.

17.          Rott, H., Müller, F., and Floricioiu, D., 2011. The Imbalance of glaciers after disintegration of Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. The Cryosphere, 2011. 5: p. 125-134.

18.          Hulbe, C.L., Scambos, T.A., Youngberg, T., and Lamb, A.K., 2008. Patterns of glacier response to disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula. Global and Planetary Change, 2008. 63(1): p. 1-8.

19.          Rott, H., Rack, W., Nagler, T., and Ieee. 2007. Increased export of grounded ice after the collapse of northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, observed by Envisat ASAR, in Igarss: 2007 Ieee International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Vols 1-12 – Sensing and Understanding Our Planet. p. 1174-1176.

20.          Glasser, N.F., Scambos, T.A., Bohlander, J., Truffer, M., Pettit, E., & Davies, B.J., 2011. From ice-shelf tributary to tidewater glacier: continued glacier recession, acceleration and thinning following the 1995 collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. Journal of Glaciology 57, 397-406.

21.          Davies, B.J., Carrivick, J.L., Glasser, N.F., Hambrey, M.J., & Smellie, J.S., 2012. Variable glacier response to atmospheric warming, northern Antarctic Peninsula, 1988–2009. The Cryosphere 6, 1031-1048. doi:10.5194/tc-6-1031-2012

22.          Joughin, I. and Alley, R.B., 2011. Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world. Nature Geosci, 2011. 4(8): p. 506-513.

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